What's In the Wind for 2013? Some Thoughts

Via Morning Media news feed (the daily industry news feed provided by MediaBistro; the complete story appeared in TechCrunch by East Coast Editor, John Biggs) - Excerpts of Mr. Biggs' thoughts on what may the publishing biz may see in 2013:

"Add in the merger of Penguin and Random House – a Napster-esque move designed to stave off the vagaries of a non-collusive market – and you’ve got an even bleaker picture.

In short, after centuries of progress, the old method of transmitting information via the printed page – not to mention the publisher’s tendency to control content with an iron fist – is crumbling. In its place we have an entirely new system and regime, one ruled less by a central authority – the editors, publishers, and printers of yore – and now ruled by the mob.

That’s not a bad thing. It lets people publish books that would have never seen a printing press and it gives an organization with seemingly bottomless resources – Amazon – the ability to define the rules to which all others must cleave. This new media has laid a book store chain low, bleeding publishers nearly dry in the process, and it has changed the way we consume media from a slow meal savored over time to an experience more akin to grazing or, more precisely, a bit of sushi on the go."

and more thoughts from Mr. Biggs:

"Goodbye, Barnes & Noble stores. Barnes & Noble stores will see a massive contraction while smaller booksellers will thrive. B&N knows what’s up. They recently split their company into two and now one company sells paper books and the other one sells digital. In fact, Microsoft invested in the digital side, leaving the print side to fend for itself. And fend it must. Although this year saw brisk sales at small mom & pops, B&N saw a minor dip in retail sales due to store closings and slow sales in stores and on BN.com. Even the college business is slowing.

A major writer will go digital. I doubt Stephen King will make the jump, but one of the lesser mystery folks will probably go all digital. Why not? It gets them more cash for their efforts and places them at the helm of their business – and blockbuster writing is a business. Going indie no longer has a stigma attached."

Not sure if the last is much of a prediction since it seems that the J. A. Konrath motivated self-pub/digital move is one being taken by any numer of authors, from unpubbed to multi-pubbed authors reissuing their back list either via a self-publishing forum or making deals for those back list books to be reissued in digital via digital house other than their current pub houses.

But will there be a new E L James in town? A new J. A. Konrath? Waiting with bated breath!!!

What are you predicting for the 2013 year in publishing - What trends, writers, digital changes, books-to-film do you foresee?

Arriving on 12/26, my February 2013 issue of RT Magazine arrived yesterday and had some interesting bits and tids in it, that may offer some insight into what's up and coming in the romance pub game - reports & predictions from an industry leader that's been watching the romance game for decades.

There's an article on the new genre of "New Adult", geared to college and early 20's readers that will be a new trend to watch. For those 20-somethings who aren't interested in YA, who are looking for more mature subject matter and possibly more in the way of the physical relationship between the couples.

Additionally, there's a brief discussion on the issue of Harlequin's category line changes.

Harlequin Blaze line has dropped from 6 titles per mont to 4 (which begs the question regarding erotic/steamy romance - does HQ know something about a waning appetite for hot love stories that no other publisher seems to have noticed????).

Harlequin Presents Extra imprint has been closed. From the Harlequin website listing for guidelines for each line, this is what it says about the HP Extra:

"They offer all the international glamour, passion and alpha male heroes you expect from Harlequin Presents, with a flirty young voice and a whole load of sass!

Written by talented, original authors such as Heidi Rice, Natalie Anderson, Kelly Hunter, Kimberly Lang, Anne Oliver, Anna Cleary and Lucy King, these entertaining romances reflect the life experiences of today's young women, within a chic, upmarket, and usually urban setting. The heroines are often your twenty-something girls-about-town but there's no compromising on the Presents Extra/Riva hero: he must be very alpha and absolutely to die for. There'll be sparks flying when these two meet—and nothing short of fireworks once they get to the bedroom!"

But HQ has also launched a new imprint, KISS, which, if you've heard anything about it, sounds like a blend of higher-aged NA, rom-com and chick lit. According to the RT report, author Kimberly Lang (one of whose books is in the inaugural quartet) says, "KISS is very contemporary and smart with a young and vibrant urban feel. "We're taking some of our favorite romance books and giving them a little twist to deliver fun, flirty and sizzling stories for our readers. We're also updating the alpha hero - he's a little younger, a bit flirty, a little less damaged and broody..."

To me that sounds like the "rom com is dead", and "chick lit" is dead adages may be waning as well, and some "fun and flirty" romance is on the way!

Further, the popularity of the tortured hero may have left readers in the cold who are looking for a kinder, gentler, less angst-ridden hero type and HQ is seeking to fill that gap.

(But it also sounds awfully similar to HP Extra, doesn't it? I'd love to discover if the changes are merely cosmetic, perhaps length and a kickier imprint name than the rather stodgy Extra one?)

But ultimately it sounds like a perfect example of genre blending - taking all the best aspects of 3 genres (or more?) and turning them into a new, hybrid romance that looks to satisfy as many tastes as possible!

HQ is often on the forefront of romance changes, so maybe we'll see more coming our way.

Definitely appears that a KISS title or two should be in your TBR pile so you can check out this latest trend, no?

Taking the opportunity here now to proslytize a teeny weeny bit, too. Trend watching in romance publishing, keeping abreast of industry changes in the romance genre are something we all pretty much do as a matter of course, right? But how much time do you spend casting your eye across the entertainment landscape as a whole? Trends are not isolated in books - TV and film are usually in sync to a certain degree as well (can you count the vampire and paranormal TV shows? I can't!). Sex plot lines in films and in theatre continue apace with the hunger for erotic romance between the covers. Cowboys - historical and contemporary are hot on screens large and small - as they are in romance.

As someone once said in connection with the railroad magnates who found their empires crumbling in the face of transportation advances (i.e., THE AUTOMOBILE), "They thought they were in the railroad business. They didn't realize they were in the transportation business."

We in publishing (be we authors, agents, publishers or any other sort) are not simply in the publishing business - we are in the entertainment business. Competing for time and dollars and being as aware of the entire industry cannot help but give you an interesting perspective.

So go forth in 2013 - armed with your crystal ball and a wealth of industry knowlege that makes you a force to be reckoned with!


"If the artist does not fling himself, without reflecting, into his work, as Curtis flung himself into the yawning gulf, as the soldier flings himself into the enemy's trenches, and if, once in this crater, he does not work like a miner on whom the walls of his gallery have fallen in; if he contemplates difficulties instead of overcoming them one by one...he is simply looking on at the suicide of his own talent." Honore de Balzac

Quick Friday Bits

It's definitely a good news/bad news kind of day.

11/21 Publisher's Lunch reports the grim news that Random House is "freezing all pensions at their current levels and will not give pensions to new employees hired as of January 1, 2009," though "the company will continue to offer matching funds, up to 6 percetn, for 401K plans." (Story is also being reported by the AP).

In the same report under "Today's Meal" however, is the report that Hatchette Book Group employees got news of something to be thankful for, an additional Thanksgiving bonus (in addition to the regular year-end bonus), which celebrates "a spectacular year".

11/20's Pub Lunch reported on the Barnes & Noble financials. In a nutshell: "Even worse than expected". Reported sales were $1.1 billion for their third quarter, and a net loss of $18.4 million. Store sales were down 7.4 percent, though the online sales rose 2%. CEO Steve Riggio said, however, "On a positive note, our gross margins continue to hold up well. We have scrupulously avoiding driving unprofitable top line sales growth with additional coupon promotions and extra discounting. Additionally, the company remains focused on producing cash flow. We are managing our working capital efficiently, which is evident in the reduction of $107 million of inventory compared to last year." (Problem with this, I'm no business woman, but that sounds as though they bought fewer books, no?).

Upcoming retailer news - BAMM reports today, and Borders releases their results on Tuesday, November 25 (after the market closes, those cagey folk!).

11/19's Pub Lunch says that "At current prices, the market value of Barnes & Noble, Borders, Books-A-Million and Hastings all together is less than $950 million. "

OUCH!

For those of you who want to sharpen your marketing and promotional skills, Author M. J. Rose's Buzz Your Book Class (an 8 year hit with authors that explores the creation and execution of your own marketing plan) is forthcoming. The first 25 registrants only. The 6-week on-line class runs from January 5th to February 2nd, 2009. The link at right will get you there.

Angela Knight's got another sale reported. Her 6th Mageverse novel went to Cindy Hwang at Berkley in a 3-book deal brokered by Roberta Brown of Brown Literary Agency.

Thought I would highlight a few agents who have made recent deals, too. Jennifer Schober of Spencerhill Associates had 2, count-em two, deals mentioned in the trades, and Helen Breitwieser at Cornerstone Literary made a romance sale. Check out these mover-and-shaker ladies via the links, stage right!

For some auspicious, yet upbeat news:

The Mystery Writers of America bestowed Grand Master status to James Lee Burke (author of, among other things, the awesome Dave Robicheaux series) and Sue Grafton (author of the perennial favorite Kinsey Milhone alphabetical series).

And for those who may have missed the event (my evening gown was in the cleaners), the National Book Awards were presented on November 19th. And the winners were: Fiction - Peter Matthiessen, SHADOW COUNTRY (Modern Library); Nonfiction - Annette Gordon-Reed, THE HEMINGSES OF MONTICELLO (W. W. Norton & Co.); Young People's Literature - Judy Blundell, WHAT I SAW AND HOW I LIED (Scholastic) and Poetry - Mark Doty, FIRE TO FIRE: NEW AND COLLECTED POEMS (HarperCollins).

It's always a great day when literature is celebrated!

Have a great weekend, and remember - buy a book. Think of it as royalty karma.

Hump Day, Redux (and the hump keeps getting bigger)

Whew. Tough day on the market today. Down over 800 points in 2 days. Wasn't it the Paul Simon song that went, "slip sliding awaaaay"?

Anyway. I'm shaking it off.

Back to the biz of publishing.

From Publishers Weekly (Nov. 17 issue): In addition to the article on cover art in the romance genre, there was a very informative article on the rise and rise and rise of paranormal in YA. In "The Next Dead Thing" the mounting popularity of the genre is examined, in the wake of the Twilight saga. Vampires are still on the scene, claims author Donna Freitas, but all things un-dead are making their presence known. Say, like, zombies. In fact, the many takes on zombies are what seem to be hot hot hot.

Says Senior VP and Associate Publisher for fiction at Harper Collins, Elise Howard says "We are still looking for that perfect zombie property.", while explaining that the "hunger for these novels is still unsatisfied", the fact is that the market is getting more sophisticated in what they want. Because of the glut - the books have to be top notch quality in order to stand out from the rest of the un-dead crowd. The old zombie - rotting flesh and body parts falling off - appealed mostly to the young male reader. But new approaches and titles are changing that. Zombie Blondes, Generation Dead and ghostgirl are some examples. Alessandra Balzer, co-publisher of Balzer & Bray at HarperCollins says "Now that people realize paranormal books are popular, everyone is publishing them. Soon it will be harder to get those books the attention they need, so we have to be really picky about what we publish."

Indeed, other creatures of the night are grabbing their own turf, including ghosts, pixies, weres and demonic creatures, such as The Vours in the recently released The Devouring.

Despite not being able to chart what the future will bring, Bloomsbury's Melanie Cecka said, "If fans are demanding these books, then we want to fulfil the need. But we are all getting more calculated about the books we publish. We are being watchful about what each house is doing, and how to position our authors..."

OT, the best line of the article, however, was that of Children's book buyer Donna Gerardo, who said, "It's pretty sad when the undead are getting better sex than I am."

But everyone agrees that this trend is going to stay strong for a while. The lesson I gleaned from the article? Find the next unique dead thing ... and they will come!

Among the PW reviews were some new names as well as some familiar:

Under Fiction - Karen Rose's Kill For Me (Grand Central; Feb.) - "Rose juggles a large cast, a huge body count and a complex plot with terrifying ease." The Nightingale, debut title from Morgana Gallaway (Kensington) "is a politically inspired romance set in contemporary Iraq." (Feb); St. Martin's Press is releasing Eric Spindler's Breakneck (Jan) but PW finds that "Spindler strays from her comfort zone." Lutishia Lovely's A Preacher's Passion (Kensington/Dafina; Jan) gets this kudo, "Amen to Lovely's hilarious follow-up to Love Like Hallelujah"

Mass Market reviewed The Witch's Grave by Shirley Damsgaard in her supernatural series (Jan), finding a "rather disjointed plot"; The Accidental Sorcerer: Rogue Agent, Book One, K. E. (Karen) Mills (Orbit; Jan) - "Miller's whimsical prose keeps the plot jumping and the readers laughing." And Lone Star Woman by Sadie Callahan - who is really Texas author Jeffrey McClanahan (Signet Eclipse; Jan) gets a great review. PW calls the title "as sizzling romance" and of the author's talent says, "...multifaceted character development, swift pacing and sensuous love scenes set this western romance well above its contemporaries." An impressive review for a male-penned romance offering.

And speaking of the YA paranormal trend, under Children's Fiction - Bones of Faerie by Jannie Lee Simner (Random) earns the debut author "the plotting is strong". Melissa Marr, already established in the YA field, enters into a compilation with other authors in the collection of five original stories - Love Is Hell (HarperTeen; Dec). PW says "consistently supple storytelling will lure readers through all five entries".

PW has 5 romance titles on the harcover list and 9 on the mass market. Romance is still strong, in all its permutations!

The Soapbox endpiece that wraps up the issue is a pithy essay by Stephen Barbara, literary agent and contracts director at Donald Maass Agency, who laments the well-honed query letters that now proliferate, following years of workshops and courses for authors on how to pen them. His problem? "Time was, bad writers wrote bad query letters." He now finds himself sucked into reading a submission with a great query letter, only to discover a dreary to dreadful submission. He concludes, "Nowadays...I figure that my goal is to discover great talent, not run a writer through some Draconian test of his or her ability to follow arcane query-writing guidelines." In other words, to paraphrase the Bard - the book's the thing!

Writer's Digest's Writer's Yearbook 2009 is out and is packed with lots of great intel, including an article (sorry, Mr. Barbara) on how to write (you guessed it) great query letters. This magazine is well worth the cover price of $5.99 for other articles on what agent's hate to find in a first chapter; strategies and advice for quick pitches at conferences; publishing your first book after 50 (which includes an inspiring story of Bangladeshi author, Nirad Chauduri, whose first book was published in 1951 at age 54. His second in 1988 at 90. His third? 1997 - aged 100); the year's wrap-up of the state of the e-book; anatomy of a writer's website; and the piece de resistance of the Yearbook, the wrap-up of 101 Best Websites for Writers.

This year these include selections under General Resources, Creativity, Publishing Resources (check out authormba.com/resources/blog_insiders.html) and publicityhound.com),Writing Groups and Communities (groups.msn.com/romancewritingtips), Agent blogs (including the Lori Parker blog I mentioned in an earlier post, as well as rejecter.blogspot.com), Legal and Business Advice (agentresearch.com/agent_ver.html; copyright.gov, literarylawguide.com/resources.html and publaw.com), Fun Stuff (noveljourney.blogspot.com) and Several Genres (erotica - erotica-readers.com; horror - horror.org; and romance - coffeetimeromance.com; romancedivas.com).

And for anyone looking to broaden their horizons:

For folk in the NYC area, PACE University offers a graduate degree, Master of Science publishing program.

The London Book Fair iwill be held on Wednesday, April 22, 2009, if you happen to be in jolly Old England.

There's the Tools of Change for Publishing TOC Conference, Feb. 9-11, 2009 in New York City.

AND, the big BEA, BookExpo America is also back in the Big Apple, May 28-31st, 2009, at the Jacob Javits Center.

More deals, dealmakers, agent profiles and good stuff to come tomorrow.

Til then, say a prayer, and buy a book.

Monday, November 10 - Technology Advances Lead News

NY Times Business Section: Google's officially in the E-publishing game now. The deal reached (Authors Guild v. Google settlement) concerns Google's publishing of electronic versions of out-of-print books, but books that are still under copyright protection. The settlement is subject to the court approval process, which is pending, but it is a harbinger of the varied future of publishing. A particularly salient point is that "Google would share online sales revenue with publishers and authors."

The article examines numerous other new ideas that are being explored by publishers (including e-books on iPhones, for example). In support of the concept that the industry is expanding, technologically, from the tried-and-true print & ship to stores version, the article quotes Eileen Gittins, chief executive of Blurb, a company that aids self-publishers using the internet: "The book business model is under siege, just as the music industry earlier came under siege."

Kindle/Sony Readers/ cell-phone and iPhone "publishing" are just the tip of the technological iceberg and Genevieve Shore, digital director for Penguin in London said in the Times' article "We will have some interesting new business models on the market in 2009."

In fact, the Times reports that while books sales in the US fell 1.5 percent in the first 9 months of this year, e-book wholesale sales are up 55 percent from a year earlier. Look for this to add impetus to the industry's pursuit of electronic delivery methods.

Electronic books have been available for a while, including Project Gutenberg, which makes more than 25,000 books available for download. Their focus, however, is on books whose copyrights have expired, unlike Google, who will be providing titles that still enjoy copyright protection.

This is just one salvo in the war on the traditional paper book. Given the plethora of electronic delivery options, increasingly "green-minded" consumers, and continuing glum fiscal news, look for everyone in the business to invent, explore, expand and promote alternative publishing and distribution of books. Particularly as the legal ramifications are more completely identified, the various parties weigh in, and precedent for these issues are straightened out.

The October 27 edition of PW (which arrived in my mailbox on 11/7), the Deals column highlights new deals for fiction authors Beth Hoffman ("Saving Ceecee Honeycutt - woman's fiction) and William Ryan (The Holy Thief and 2 addtl. titles, historical crime), both by agents at InkWell. Sounds like a "happening" place for authors to be! Check out their website for more details on this agency (see link to the right).

Lots of romance titles got reviewed in the issue, including a great one for Janye Ann Krentz' new HC title, "Running Hot" (Putnam) "The plot is fast, steamy and wildy entertaining..." Also - Meg Cabot's "Ransom My Heart" is an historical romance "...thoroughly enjoyable and funny."

Other general reviews included "Midnight Sins by Cynthia Eden (Kensington/Brava), "Night Shadow" by Cherry Adair (Ballantine). Mass Market reviews of "Untamed", (starred review) Pamela Clare (Leisure) - about this historical they say: "Clare's detailed attention to the history of alliances forged and battles fought near Fort Ticonderoga adds authenticity, and the characters evolve and change with a realism that readers will love"; "Dying for You" Beverly Barton (HQN) "fast pace and hot-tempered romance"; "Wicked is the Night", Catherine Mulvaney (Pocket Star) - "a diverting if pedictable tale"; and "What a Pirate Desires", Michaelle Beattie's debut title (Berkley Sensation) - "This very traditional but fun romance features a feisty heroine, a tortured hero and a sassy parttot, along with strong doses of betrayal, action and plenty of cunning". The number of reviews give romance a nice plug - not always the case in PW which sometimes reviews a mere one or two romance titles.

And the 11/9 Publishers Lunch Deluxe provides details on 12 new deals for romance novels/authors, more than any other genre covered; 11/10 (hooray!).

Lastly, you might wish to consider looking into membership in the Authors Guild. Their membership fee is $90, but they include contract review among their member benefits. Given the diversity of contracts - e-contracts particularly deviate from the old standard publishing contracts - and the recent propensity of publishers to include new provisions, and to change what had been some traditional provisions - for those of us without agents, it is a good source of legal advice that can help you avoid pain, heartache and wasted efforts later. Their link is on the right!